CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-01-22T10:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-01-22T10:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28689/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Wide CME with distinctive bright core (likely h-alpha emission) seen to the S/SE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and after a data gap in STEREO A COR2 imagery. This CME is associated with a large filament eruption stretching from ~S45E10 to ~S20W20, centered around S35W10. The source eruption is best seen in SDO/AIA 304 starting around 2024-01-22T08:30Z. Associated dimming (SDO/AIA 193), brightening (SDO/AIA 304), and post-eruptive arcades (SDO/AIA 193, 171, and 211) are visible. The filament appears to deflect southward as it erupts. Possible arrival signature: a change in the solar wind pattern, with B total sharply increasing from under 3 nT to over 6nT, followed by another jump to just above 10nT around 14Z. There is also rotation of two magnetic field components, that after 14Z potentially resembles signature of a glancing blow/arrival of a flux rope.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-25T05:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-25T01:21Z (-6.02h, +8.75h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:
Time of Launch: 2024/01/22 10:45Z Plane of Sky 1: 17:40Z; 31.5Rsun; SSW Direction Plane of Sky 2: 00:20Z; 31.5Rsun; NNE Direction POS Difference: 6:40 POS Midpoint: 21:00Z TOL/Midpoint Difference: 10:15 Numeric View/Impact Type: 2 POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.11 Travel Time: ~6.11 * 10:15 = 62:36 Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-01-25T01:21Z Error Parameters: - POS Difference: 1 Hour - Travel Time: 5% Notes: Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5Lead Time: 59.37 hour(s)
Difference: 4.23 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-01-22T18:13Z
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